Chicago White Sox 2026: The Setup Year
Several top-100 prospects and a roster still being built
Organizational Thesis
This is a team trying to build a contention window without mortgaging the prospects that make that window possible, but every month of restraint quietly erodes Robert’s trade value and Schultz’s health runway.
The White Sox enter 2026 with the richest farm system they’ve had in a generation. Two left-handed pitchers who could anchor a rotation for a decade. An outfielder who could become a middle-of-the-order force. But none of them are ready to carry the major league roster today.
Chris Getz has flexibility, but he’s choosing to use it on small bets rather than veteran guarantees. That restraint isn’t cheap. It’s strategic. The problem is that strategy has a shelf life.
Robert’s value drops every month he doesn’t perform. Schultz’s knee is a variable no one controls. The 40-man is maxed out. Every decision this year is about sequencing, and the sequencing window is already narrowing.
The Big-League Shape
The roster falls into four buckets. Each one makes the next more uncomfortable.
Locked
These are bets already placed. You can’t undo them.
Munetaka Murakami signed as the offseason’s biggest acquisition. He posted elite numbers in NPB’s 2025 season, and his raw power is real: his max exit velocity ranks among the hardest in the majors. He’s the first middle-of-the-order threat the Sox have added since Jose Abreu. Projections are cautious on the translation, but if his zone contact improves from what it was in Japan, the lineup finally has an anchor.
Kyle Teel is the catcher. Among backstops who got regular playing time in 2025, he posted one of the highest on-base percentages in the game. Behind the plate, he’s the starter. In the lineup, he’s an asset. Projections have him as the team’s most valuable player heading into the season.
We’re counting on Murakami to translate and Teel to prove his debut wasn’t a fluke. If either bet fails, the lineup has no anchor. And without an anchor, 2027 becomes another rebuilding year instead of a competitive one.
Soft
These are bets you’re pretending you don’t have to settle yet.
Luis Robert Jr. remains the center fielder after the $20 million option was picked up, but trade talks are active. Multiple contenders have kicked the tires. His second-half showed life after a brutal first half. If someone offers pitching depth, he’s gone. If not, he plays center and the organization hopes for a rebound.
Left field has a veteran presence. Third base is a reclamation project from the Dodgers. Neither blocks prospects. Neither solves problems.
What’s being lost while they delay: Robert’s value. Every month without production, every failed trade deadline, the return shrinks. The Sox are waiting for the market to come to them, but the market is watching Robert’s bat speed. If they wait until August and he’s hitting .220, they’ll get back less than they would have in March.
Blocked
These are places where waiting actively destroys value.
The catching depth is a problem Getz has publicly acknowledged. Teel is the starter, but there’s another MLB-caliber backstop on the roster who needs at-bats. One will DH when the other catches. A third catcher, out of options, is the odd man out. Repurposing one of them likely means a trade, not a position change.
Every game the backup spends DHing instead of catching is development time lost. Every month the third catcher stays on the roster is a 40-man spot that could go to a pitching prospect. The logjam doesn’t just create awkwardness. It actively wastes the asset they’re trying to protect.
Vacuum
These are holes patience won’t fill on its own.
Right field is a competition between fringe options. None of them are long-term. Braden Montgomery is the long-term answer, but he’s not here yet.
The back of the rotation has two locks and a veteran signed to eat innings. After that, it’s a competition between several arms and whatever the returning Tommy John pitchers can offer by midseason.
These holes can’t be solved internally this year. If the Sox don’t promote Montgomery or acquire rotation help, they’ll punt these problems into 2027. But punting has a cost: another year of evaluating the wrong players, another year of not knowing what they actually have.
They have depth, but not force. And depth without urgency just delays the reckoning.
The Prospects That Change the Story
Two names will determine whether 2027 becomes a competitive year or another evaluation year. One is a timer. One is weather.
Braden Montgomery is the timer. The switch-hitter posted strong numbers across three levels in 2025 despite injury setbacks. He could debut by midseason if the outfield situation collapses. By June, the organization must decide whether to start Montgomery’s clock or keep Robert’s illusion alive. If they call him up, they get five months of evaluation but start his service time. If they wait until September, they save a year but learn nothing about whether he’s ready. And if they wait while Robert’s value craters, they lose twice: no trade return and no prospect evaluation.
Noah Schultz is the weather. The 6-foot-10 left-hander draws Randy Johnson comparisons, but 2025 was a struggle. Patellar tendinitis limited him to 73 innings, and his command was inconsistent. If he’s healthy, he’s the most important arm in the system and could debut this season. By July, the organization must know whether Schultz is a 2027 rotation anchor or whether they need to acquire one. His knee will answer questions no scout can.
Montgomery collapses the Robert timeline. Schultz determines whether they need to buy pitching. Together, they force clarity the front office can’t delay.
The Plan for 2026
Here’s what the organization is planning for, and what happens when those plans break.
Expectations
The White Sox aren’t trying to contend in 2026. They’re trying to get answers. Can the shortstop handle the position every day? Is Teel a franchise catcher? Does the rotation’s best arm hold up under a full season’s workload? Does Murakami’s power translate across the Pacific?
The record will land somewhere between 65 and 75 wins. Projections suggest one of the worst offenses in baseball. That’s acceptable if the answers come back positive.
At least two top prospects should debut: Montgomery and one of the pitching prospects. Robert will likely remain on the roster through spring training, possibly moved in August if a contender gets desperate. The catching logjam will persist, with Teel catching most days and the backup getting at-bats at DH.
Best-Case Acceleration
If the key variables click, 2027 becomes a competitive year instead of another evaluation year.
What that looks like: Schultz stays healthy and dominates. Montgomery forces his way up in May and posts solid numbers. Murakami anchors the lineup with 25-plus home runs. Robert gets traded for pitching prospects with control. The Rule 5 picks stick and contribute. The ace pitches 170 innings with a strong ERA. By September, the rotation has three starters under 25 who look like building blocks.
In this scenario, the 2027 offseason becomes about adding one or two veterans, not rebuilding from scratch.
When the Plan Breaks
If Schultz’s knee flares again, the other top pitching prospect accelerates. The rotation question pushes into 2027 and the Sox have to decide whether to acquire an arm or wait another year. Every month of uncertainty shrinks the trade market’s appetite.
If Murakami can’t adjust, the lineup construction shifts. The DH spot rotates between whoever is hot. The middle of the order remains a problem, and the 2027 offseason shopping list grows longer.
If Robert doesn’t trade, he plays center field and the organization hopes for a rebound. Montgomery’s promotion to right field happens anyway if he’s ready. The outfield gets crowded with no good options, and the Sox enter 2027 with the same question they had in 2026.
Signals to Watch
Spring Training (February-March)
Watch Schultz’s workload. Is he building up normally, or are they being cautious? Anything under 15 total innings in Cactus League games is a yellow flag for the 2026 timeline.
Watch Robert’s roster status. If he’s still on the team by the end of March, the trade market didn’t produce what Getz wanted. That tells you teams don’t value him the way Chicago does, and the window to get fair value is already closing.
First Half / June (April-June)
Watch Montgomery’s call-up date. If he’s up by the Super 2 deadline in late June, the Sox are prioritizing evaluation over service time. If they wait until September, they’re prioritizing control over answers. Either choice has consequences.
Watch Teel’s workload. Is he catching four or five games per week, or is the backup splitting time evenly? The answer tells you whether they view Teel as the franchise catcher or as part of a committee they need to resolve.
Trade Deadline (July-August)
Watch whether Robert moves. If he’s traded, look at the return. Pitching depth with control means the plan is working. Lottery tickets mean they blinked and waited too long.
Watch for reliever trades. The bullpen has arms with value to contenders. If they’re moved, the Sox are selling. If they’re kept, the Sox believe they’ll need that depth for their own push. But keeping relievers on a 70-win team is a choice with its own cost.
September
Watch the call-up list. Who gets the September promotions tells you who’s in the 2027 plan.
Watch Schultz’s usage. Is he pitching meaningful innings, or is he being shut down to preserve workload? Meaningful innings means he’s ready. Shutdown means the weather turned bad.
What This Year Feels Like
The roster is young and cheap, which gives you time. But Robert’s trade value won’t last forever. Schultz’s knee is a variable you can’t control. Every month you wait, those variables shift against you.
The good news: you have the first overall pick in the 2026 draft. You have six top-100 prospects. You have a payroll near the bottom of baseball, which means when you’re ready to spend, you can.
The bad news: none of that helps you win games in April. And none of it protects you from the cost of waiting.
The White Sox enter 2026 with the ingredients for a contender. What they don’t have is a contender. That gap is the whole story. They can delay the consolidation, but they can’t escape it. The price of patience this year may be the window they wanted next year.
Sources
Baseball-Reference
FanGraphs
Spotrac
MLB.com
SI.com
South Side Showdown
Chicago Tribune
Sox Machine
MLB Trade Rumors
Chicago Sun-Times
MLB Pipeline
Sports Mockery
Baseball America
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