Organizational Thesis
This is a team trying to run it back forever without admitting the core that made it possible is aging out, and time is the antagonist no trade can defeat.
The Dodgers enter 2026 as the two-time defending champions, chasing a three-peat no National League team has ever accomplished in the World Series era.
The rotation is stacked with five arms who could start for any team in baseball. The lineup has an MVP candidate at nearly every position. The farm system has seven top-100 prospects despite years of trades for win-now pieces. By any measure, this is the best-positioned franchise in the sport.
But Freeman’s contract runs out after 2027. That means the first domino in the core’s departure is less than two years away. Every month they don’t win shortens the runway to win again.
The Main Cast
The Dodgers don’t rebuild positions. They reload them. But even reloading has limits when your best players are entering their mid-thirties.
Locked
These are the franchise cornerstones. The questions are about age curves, not whether they belong.
Shohei Ohtani anchors everything. At 31, he’s still in his prime, pitching and hitting at elite levels while his massive deferred contract keeps him in Dodger Blue through 2033. The structure lets the Dodgers pay a fraction of his actual value right now, with the real cost coming in 2034 and beyond. That’s the magic trick that enables the entire roster construction. If Ohtani’s health fails, the math that built this team collapses with it. Every month he stays healthy is another month the dynasty can spend beyond its means.
Mookie Betts remains one of baseball’s best all-around players at 33. The defensive metrics have started slipping slightly at second base after his 2024 position change, but the bat plays anywhere. He’s locked in through 2032, giving the Dodgers seven more years of a future Hall of Famer. But those seven years include his age-34 through age-39 seasons. If Betts ages poorly, they’re paying $30 million annually for a declining player while the window closes.
Freddie Freeman is the first departure on the horizon. At 36, he’s showing the inevitable signs of age, but he’s still one of the National League’s best hitters. He won’t be here in 2028. That’s the timeline that shapes every other decision. If they don’t win it all before Freeman leaves, they’re rebuilding the heart of the lineup while trying to compete.
We’re counting on Ohtani staying healthy, Betts aging gracefully, and Freeman giving them two more productive years. If any of those bets fail, the window doesn’t close gradually. It slams shut.
Soft
These positions have starters who might not be here when the next contracts come due. The veteran third baseman is 35 and in his walk year. The power numbers have declined, and the walk rate can’t carry a lineup spot forever. The outfield mix includes a 33-year-old win-now bat on a win-now roster. The shortstop signed a one-year deal for his final MLB season.
None of these players force decisions. They’re all placeholders until the prospects are ready or the contracts expire. What’s being lost while the organization waits? Leverage. Every month the aging corner pieces decline, the trade value of the prospect surplus diminishes too. You can only trade from strength while you still have it.
What would change our view: the veteran bats rediscovering their peak form, or the outfield prospects developing more slowly than expected.
Blocked
The Dodgers have created competition through depth, not desperation.
The starting rotation has too many arms for a five-man setup. The front office has openly discussed running a six-man rotation to keep everyone in the mix. Roki Sasaki is the question mark. His postseason bullpen work in 2025 was dominant, but regular season consistency has been elusive. If Sasaki’s struggles continue into the first half, the six-man rotation becomes a five-man rotation with a bullpen conversion. If he figures it out, this might be the deepest starting pitching in modern baseball history.
How this gets resolved: The six-man rotation happens, the durability-challenged arms stay fresher, and the depth moves to long relief or trade chips. But every month Sasaki underperforms in the regular season erodes confidence in his October role. They can’t wait forever to know who he is.
Vacuum
There are no obvious vacuums on this roster. That’s what $350 million buys you.
The closest thing to an open question is depth behind the aging veterans. If the third baseman struggles or gets injured, the internal options are thin. If the outfield bats decline, the replacements are in Double-A, not on the bench. The Dodgers have never been afraid to address holes midseason through trade, but every trade costs prospect capital. And the prospect capital is the bridge to the post-Freeman era.
They have depth, and they have force. But they can’t spend from both accounts forever.
The Prospect That Changes the Story
The outfield surplus isn’t a question. It’s a clock.
Josue De Paula is the system’s top prospect, a 20-year-old in Double-A with exceptional raw power and outstanding plate discipline. Four of the organization’s seven top-100 prospects play the outfield. That’s not depth. That’s a logjam that forces a choice.
By July, the organization must decide whether the outfield surplus is trade capital for 2026 or roster construction for 2028. If De Paula gets traded at the deadline, the Dodgers are going all-in on this year. If he’s held, the front office is already thinking about what comes after Freeman. The decision itself tells you what the organization believes about its own timeline.
Every month that passes with prospects in the minors instead of contributing to wins or moving in trades is value quietly decaying. The dynasty tax isn’t just age. It’s the opportunity cost of having more assets than roster spots.
The Plan for 2026
The goal is simple: win a third straight World Series. Everything else is secondary.
Expectations
The Dodgers will enter the season as heavy favorites to win the NL West again, having won 12 of the last 13 division titles. The rotation, when healthy, might be the best in baseball history on paper. The lineup has no obvious weaknesses. The bullpen added a proven closer to lock down the ninth inning.
Anything less than a deep October run would be a disappointment.
Sasaki moves back to the rotation after his postseason bullpen work. The six-man rotation keeps the high-priced arms fresh for October. Ohtani, Freeman, and Betts form the heart of the lineup. The farm system mostly stays in place unless a trade target emerges.
Best-Case Acceleration
If everything clicks, this becomes the best team in modern baseball history.
What that looks like: Sasaki’s regular season matches his postseason dominance. The rotation stays healthy through September. Freeman has a vintage age-36 season. Betts wins another MVP. The lineup has no slumps longer than two weeks. By October, they enter the playoffs with home-field advantage, a rested rotation, and the experience of two straight championships.
In this scenario, the dynasty conversation shifts from “can they sustain it?” to “how long can they keep going?”
Contingencies
If Sasaki’s struggles continue: The rotation absorbs the loss. The depth arms step into the sixth spot. Sasaki moves to the bullpen like 2025, and the postseason plan adjusts. The ceiling drops, but the floor remains high.
If Freeman’s bat declines sharply: The DH spot becomes a rotation. The lineup gets thinner, and the margin for error shrinks. This is the most likely crack in the foundation. If it happens before July, the trade deadline becomes about lineup reinforcement instead of luxury additions.
If the rotation loses an arm to injury: The depth pieces get extended looks. The trade deadline becomes about pitching acquisition. The front office has never been shy about adding arms midseason, but every arm costs prospects. And the prospects are the only bridge to whatever comes next.
If the bullpen struggles: High-leverage relief is volatile. If the ninth inning becomes unreliable, the Dodgers have the resources to acquire relievers at the deadline. The farm system has trade capital specifically for this scenario. But spending that capital shortens the post-dynasty runway.
Signals to Watch
Spring Training (February-March)
Sasaki’s innings and velocity. Is he building up normally for a starter’s workload? If he’s limited below 15 Cactus League innings, the regular season role might still be in flux. The longer that uncertainty lingers, the more the rotation depth becomes rotation necessity.
Freeman’s spring performance. At 36, how he looks in spring matters more than it used to. Any signs of decline will shape the season’s narrative from day one. If the bat speed has slowed, the trade deadline conversation starts in March.
Six-man rotation structure. How are they spacing the starts? If Ohtani is pitching on extra rest from the start, the workload management strategy is locked in. The structure tells you whether they’re optimizing for April or October.
First Half / June (April-June)
Sasaki’s consistency. Does the regular season version match the postseason version? By June, they’ll know if the mechanical adjustments stuck. If he’s still inconsistent in June, the bullpen conversion becomes inevitable.
Freeman’s production by month. Any sustained slump will spark decline narratives. Watch for how he responds to early struggles if they come. A slow April is recoverable. A slow June starts the clock on deadline decisions.
Trade Deadline (July-August)
Prospect movement. If De Paula or the outfield depth gets traded, the Dodgers are going all-in on 2026. If they’re held, the front office is hedging for the post-Freeman era. The choice reveals the organization’s true assessment of the window.
Pitching additions. Even with rotation depth, the Dodgers typically add an arm at the deadline. The quality of that arm tells you their confidence level. A rental says “win now.” A controlled starter says “we’re thinking beyond this year.”
September
Sasaki’s workload. Is he built up for a full postseason rotation role, or will he be bullpen-bound again? The September usage tells you October’s plan. If he’s still in the bullpen by September, the bet didn’t pay off.
Freeman’s finish. How he closes the season, at 36, shapes whether the Dodgers try to extend him or let him walk after 2027. A strong September extends the dynasty timeline. A weak one accelerates the transition.
What This Year Feels Like
Look at this roster and see both the obvious and the uncomfortable.
The obvious: This is the best team in baseball. The rotation is historically deep. The lineup has no holes. The farm system can address any weakness that emerges. They have every tool they need to win a third straight championship.
The uncomfortable: Freeman has two years left, and the first cracks are forming. Betts is 33, playing a position with a contract that runs through his age-39 season. The veteran third baseman might not be an everyday player by September. The dynasty doesn’t end suddenly. It ends one player at a time, and the first departures are visible on the horizon.
The 2026 Dodgers are not a team in transition. They’re a team fighting to delay transition as long as possible. Every win this season is proof that the machine still works. Every playoff game is another chance to extend the legacy. But underneath the championships and the payroll and the prospect depth, there’s a clock ticking.
The dynasty tax isn’t paid in dollars. It’s paid in time. And time is the one resource the Dodgers can’t acquire at the trade deadline.
The price of waiting another year to address what’s coming may be the window they built everything to protect.
Sources
Baseball-Reference
FanGraphs
Spotrac
MLB.com
MLB Pipeline
Baseball America
True Blue LA
Dodger Blue
ESPN
Wikipedia
Next Up - Milwaukee Brewers: The Reload
Previously - Chicago White Sox: The Setup Year